Gas prices continued their ascent on Friday as the escalating conflict with Iran sends shockwaves through global energy markets.
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The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline climbed to $3.32 on Friday, according to AAA — that’s an 11.4% increase from last week’s price and the highest level since August 2024.
The jump follows a surge in crude oil prices after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iranian targets last Saturday, prompting retaliatory attacks from Tehran.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded above $91 a barrel Friday morning, its highest level since mid-2024, according to GasBuddy.
US pump prices could continue to climb. BloombergNEF estimates that about half of the eventual increase in retail gasoline prices typically shows up within 10 to 13 days, with roughly 90% reflected within about 21 days.
The firm added that if crude rises by $10 a barrel amid escalating tensions, US gas prices could climb by roughly 30 to 40 cents per gallon in the short term.
Oil supply chains have been particularly sensitive to threats around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway along Iran’s southern coast that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption.
Iran said it attacked a tanker passing through the waterway on Thursday.
Any disruption there could quickly drive oil prices higher — and those moves would show up at the pump within weeks.
Iran has also targeted regional energy infrastructure, including facilities tied to Qatar’s massive liquefied natural gas exports.
President Donald Trump downplayed the retail price increase when asked by Reuters about rising fuel costs this week, saying he does not “have any concern about it.”
“They’ll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit,” he said.
He has said that the US Navy will escort tankers passing through the Strait.
Retail analysts warn that the impact of higher energy prices could extend beyond drivers. Higher fuel costs raise shipping and distribution expenses for businesses and can weigh on consumer spending.
“As oil prices rise, gas prices follow,” Carol Spieckerman, an independent retail analyst, told Business Insider. “And with the administration promising lower prices and consumers laser-focused on the pump, this metric has been given arguably more political and psychological energy than any other economic variable.”
She added that the impact will stretch far beyond the gas station. Higher fuel costs can push up travel, delivery, and retail prices — including goods made with petroleum-based materials.
“The ripple effects of fuel prices are far-reaching and underestimated,” she said. “It’s a compounding effect that touches nearly every corner of retail.”
