Hiring has slowed sharply across many advanced economies, but companies may simply be getting better at picking the right people, according to Goldman Sachs.
That’s due in part to a decline in short-term job separations: workers leaving or losing jobs soon after being hired. That decrease suggests firms and workers are increasingly finding better matches from the start, even as labor markets cool after the post-pandemic hiring surge.
“Most of the pullback in churn reflects a decline in job separations within one or two quarters after hiring, a pattern that suggests that workers and firms have gotten better at identifying ‘good’ matches over time,” Goldman’s economists wrote in a Tuesday note.
Historically, short-term separations have been common because some hires turn out to be poor matches between employers and workers. However, they have steadily fallen across developed economies over the past two decades, and the decline accelerated after the pandemic.
The trend is borne out by US Census Bureau data and Canadian labor force data.
Fewer bad hires
The decline appears broad across industries. It’s explained by changes in the workforce composition, suggesting a structural shift in how workers and firms form job matches.
“In our opinion, the best explanation of the decline in short-term separations is that increased information and improved screening processes have increased both firms’ and workers’ ability to identify ‘good’ matches,” wrote the Goldman economists.
Platforms such as LinkedIn, Glassdoor, and Indeed give workers insight into company culture and working conditions before they accept a role. At the same time, employers are increasingly using digital screening tools — including AI — to evaluate candidates and screen applicants.
Those tools may help reduce hiring mistakes, the economists wrote.
Better matches mean fewer early job exits — and less need for companies to hire replacements.
The shift could also make the labor market more efficient overall. With fewer failed job matches, there is less frictional unemployment — the type of joblessness that occurs when workers move between jobs.
Goldman’s analysis comes amid debate about the current labor market, which some economists describe as a “low hiring, low firing” environment.
In such an environment, a further drop in hiring could push unemployment higher more quickly because displaced and younger workers have fewer opportunities.
