Indeed CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba says all the concerns about AI are missing a much bigger issue in the labor market.
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“Actually, what is happening in all developed countries, including European countries and the US, what is happening is a big demographic change, an aging labor market,” Idekoba, who is also CEO of Indeed and Glassdoor’s parent company Recruit Holdings, said on Wednesday during Semafor’s World Economy Summit.
The struggle to backfill retiring workers “is a way bigger impact than AI impact today,” Idekoba said.
Idekoba said Indeed’s research found that in the US, there will be 20 million fewer workers over the next 15 years. “That’s like 5% less workers,” he said. Of that decrease, Indeed estimated that 80% will be due to an aging population, and just 20% to AI-related job displacement.
Western nations, including the United States, Idekoba said, haven’t grappled with the reality that the labor market is shrinking at a time when there are already unfilled jobs in high-skilled trades.
He compared the situation to his native Japan. Japan has struggled with a low birth rate for decades, but it has maintained a relatively stable labor force by increasing the number of women in the workforce. Historically, women worked at much lower rates in Japan.
Unlike Japan, the US and many Western countries don’t have a similar pool of untapped workers to fall back on.
“In the US, it’s happening in Germany, the UK, all of the developed countries, it’s gonna be faster,” Idekoba said. “That’s why what’s happening literally is there are so many open positions — construction jobs, plumbers, healthcare jobs, electricians —‚ such fundamentally important jobs, but we don’t have a good pipeline.”
Idekoba said such shortages will quickly become major headaches for consumers.
“I don’t want to wait two months when I find the water leaking,” he said. “But that’s happening now in the US.”
Correction, April 16, 2026 — A previous version of this report misstated the time span Idekoba said for the decline in US workers. It was 15 years.
