Today’s consumer price index report is unusual.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that prices increased 0.4% over the month between September and October, slightly hotter than the 0.3% increase economists expected and down from the previous 0.6% monthly rise.
But if you want to know how most prices changed over the last year — the usual headline inflation rate that markets and consumers eagerly await each month — you’re out of luck. CPI data collection was suspended during the 2025 federal government shutdown, so no October 2025 release was published. That means a 12-month percent change won’t be possible.
Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% over the month, as they did in both August and September, just above the 0.2% expected.
Shelter accounted for more than 30% of the 0.4% increase in consumer prices; shelter prices increased 0.3% over the month. Food prices increased 0.5%, apparel prices increased 0.1%, and used cars and trucks prices fell 1.2%.
Energy remains a hot topic as the war in Iran continues, and drivers are paying more at the pump than they did a year ago, on average. Energy prices saw some relief from September; they increased 0.7% over the month, far below the 5.2% in September. Gas prices rose just 1% after the 9.1% rise the previous month. BLS was still able to publish the year-over-year increase for gas, which was 37.4%, up from 34.2% in September.
BLS also published the latest real earnings data, which showed inflation-adjusted wages were flat over the month. On a year-over-year basis, which, like the main inflation figure, is unavailable for October, wage growth has lagged price growth since the beginning of the Iran war.
The next CPI report will be published December 10, just after the Federal Open Market Committee meets for a final time this year. The Fed can use the most recent CPI data or other inflation estimates to make its interest rate decision, including the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is its preferred inflation measure.
CME FedWatch showed, based on market moves, there’s a 99% chance of a hike next month. Goldman Sachs Asset Management also believes a hike is on the horizon.
“A December hike is our firm base case despite wider AI jitters, and stubborn inflation means we cannot rule out further hikes in 2027,” Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in commentary.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its October meeting, the second-to-last of the year, and traders expect a hike at the coming meeting.
“The Committee believes that the accumulation of more information will help it determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal,” said Fed chair Kevin Warsh said at the press conference following the October meeting.
Amid elevated inflation, consumers are adjusting how they shop.
“Apparel is among the categories where consumers have the greatest flexibility to respond to inflation,” a Bank of America Institute report said. “They can switch brands, retailers, or delay purchases altogether. As a result, apparel shows some of the clearest evidence of trading down in our data.”
