Following the Federal Reserve is the closest thing market-watchers have to an ongoing soap opera. The “will they / won’t they” push-and-pull around interest rates can turn on a dime, depending on the day’s news. The central bank’s next move is always under a microscope.
But for the entirety of 2026 so far, the Fed hasn’t, well, done anything with rates. At the beginning of the year the expectation was for cuts. Now — with inflation rising — many are clamoring for a hike. Yet we remain unchanged.
The Fed’s next chance is Sept. 16, just over a week from today, and investors think we could finally see some rate action. They’re pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, up from 52% last Thursday, according to FedWatch data.
Why the increase? Thank Friday’s jobs report, which saw a blowout 162,000 payrolls added in August, crushing forecasts. The thinking is that strong employment figures give the Fed some runway to raise rates without tanking the economy.
The immediate response in the bond market was a sharp spike higher in the 2-year Treasury yield, which is the most sensitive to rates. The gain moderated as the session went on, but the takeaway was clear: a hike is firmly back in play.
That ramps up the stakes for the upcoming slate of economic data, which will give the FOMC the final inputs they need to decide on a hike. Here are three data points to watch:
1. Producer prices (Thursday, Sept. 10): PPI will give investors a look at whether the Iran-war oil shock and higher freight costs are building in the inflation pipeline. A hot reading would suggest companies are starting to pass those costs to customers — another argument for the Fed to act.
What the Fed is looking for: How much higher energy and supply-chain costs are spreading through the economy.
2. Consumer prices (Friday, Sept. 11): CPI is definitely the most critical of the three data points. July’s reading showed some cooling, but investors will be watching if the global energy shock causes an uptick. Fuel costs have been a particular pain point, with diesel prices recently hitting record highs.
What the Fed is looking for: Whether inflation is cooling enough to justify holding rates steady.
3. University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Friday, Sept. 11): The US consumer has been throwing up red flags for several weeks now, including a dismal retail sales number last month. The UMich survey will look to get things on track, although the previous edition showed consumers getting more pessimistic and bracing for inflation.
What the Fed is looking for: Whether consumers think higher prices are here to stay.
At this point, a hike is still far from a done deal. But we’re closer to a rate move than we’ve been in a while — and this trio of data is the final piece of the Fed’s decision-making puzzle.
