Someone made hundreds of thousands of dollars off a well-timed bet on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s political future.
Now, a congressman wants to block government officials from being able to do the same.
Rep. Ritchie Torres plans to introduce a bill this week called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, the New York Democrat’s spokesman confirmed to Business Insider. The impending bill introduction was first reported by Punchbowl News.
The bill would bar federal elected officials, political appointees, and Executive Branch employees from making trades on prediction markets when they have nonpublic information related to the transaction, or might be able to obtain it via their official duties.
On Friday, a newly created account on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, bet $30,000 that Maduro would be out of office by January 31, 2026.
The next day, after Maduro’s capture, the user netted a $436,759.61 prize.
Polymarket does not currently have any restrictions or rules against insider trading. In fact, CEO Shayne Coplan has argued that insider trading via prediction markets can be a public good.
“What’s cool about Polymarket is that it creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market,” Coplan said at an Axios Business event.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to Business Insider’s request for comment.
By contrast, Kalshi — another major prediction market platform — has rules barring insider trading.
According to the company, a government official would have been forbidden from making the Maduro trade. That’s because the platform’s rulebook bars “decision-makers” who “have any influence” on the outcome of an event from making trades related to it. The company also has safeguards in place to prevent insider trading.
“Kalshi explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form, including government employees trading on prediction markets related to government activity,” spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana told Business Insider. “We’re looking at the specifics of the bill, but we already ban the activity it cites and are in support of means to prevent this type of activity.”
This isn’t the first time that fears of insider trading have cropped up around a major Trump administration action.
In April, as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement caused a significant swing in the stock market, some administration officials and members of Congress made well-timed stock trades.
Below is the text of Torres’s forthcoming bill, courtesy of his office:
