Macro hedge funds have, for the most part, not been deft enough to avoid losses in this month’s market turmoil brought on by the strikes on Iran by the US and Israel.
Brevan Howard’s Master fund, its longest-running strategy, has given back its 2026 gains after falling 6% this month through last Friday. Andrew Law’s Caxton Associates is down 15% on the month through last Friday, while Millennium-backed Taula Capital has lost more than 7% in over the same period.
The funds either declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment. Bloomberg first reported Brevan and Taula’s losses, while the Financial Times first reported Caxton’s losses.
There is one big-name macro investor that has been able to avoid the fallout, though. Bridgewater Associates, the $92 billion manager founded by Ray Dalio, is down less than 1% in March in its flagship Pure Alpha strategy through last Friday, a person close to the Connecticut-based fund told Business Insider.
The fund had one of its best years on record in 2025, with a 33% surge. Bridgewater did not respond to requests for comment.
Macro investors use forecasts on geopolitical outcomes to make bets on a range of asset classes, including currencies, bonds, and interest rates.
It’s not clear what specific trade tripped up the stung macro managers listed above, but three different investors said a reversal in short-term interest rate expectations in the UK and Europe hurt traders across Wall Street and Mayfair, London’s posh neighborhood full of hedge fund offices.
The expectation coming into the year was that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank would cut interest rates, but fears of inflation driven by rising energy costs from the Iran conflict have forced central bankers to reconsider. Caxton’s Law told the FT last year that he expected UK borrowing costs to fall in 2026, for example.
It’s not only macro investors who have been hurt by the fallout from the strikes on Iran. Global stocks have fallen, and HSBC’s Hedge Weekly report notes that quant pioneer Renaissance Technologies, Tiger Cub Maverick Capital, and $80 billion Marshall Wace’s multistrategy offering, Alpha Plus, have all lost money this month. The firms declined to comment.
