The outlook for AI’s impact on the job market is dim, but Goldman Sachs put a number on just how many people could be impacted by the technology.
Economists at Goldman updated their forecast for how many jobs could be impacted as companies turn to artificial intelligence to power their workforce. In Goldman’s baseline scenario, which has productivity rising 15% in the US and other developed economies, the bank sees up to 9% of workers being displaced from their current roles.
Last year, Goldmans’ chief economist Jan Hatzius said AI could displace 6% to 7% of all US workers. The bank began to float a displacement rate as high as 9% as this summer, which would be equivalent to around 15 million workers who see their jobs disrupted by AI.
The job market may also face headwinds from slower hiring overall because of AI adoption, though the hit to overall unemployment will likely be fueled more by outright job losses rather than less hiring, the report added.
“Under our baseline forecasts for near potential growth next year, our estimates suggest that AI labor disruption will likely only gradually increase rather than delivering an abrupt labor market shock,” Hatzius wrote in a report on Thursday.
The US is still in the early stages of AI adoption. Less than a quarter of firms have incorporated AI into regular workflows, Goldman estimates.
Hatzius said AI adoption may speed up if the US economy were to enter an economic downturn, citing its analysis of past automation cycles during recessions.
“A more concerning takeaway from our analysis is that a cyclical slowdown would likely accelerate AI-related automation and job losses, thereby amplifying the broader business cycle,” he wrote.
The panic about AI job losses has eased slightly, but the idea that AI could one day decimate entry-level white-collar work is still a fear voiced by some researchers.
Layoff announcements ticked lower in September, but AI remains the top cited reason for job cuts, accounting for 21% of all announced layoffs. Job losses in the tech sector also outpace that of any other industry, accounting for 29% of all job cuts last month, according to the data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
