Copper prices have exploded to record highs again, not because the world is running out of the metal, but in part because the United States is scooping up so much of it that everyone else is scrambling for what’s left.
Benchmark three-month copper hit an all-time high of $11,952 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange on Friday. It’s now trading around $11,655 per ton, up roughly 33% so far this year.
The US has been aggressively stockpiling metal ahead of potential tariffs, pulling huge volumes out of the tradable global system and tightening supplies everywhere else.
“US inventory is effectively ‘trapped’,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report on Tuesday.
However, the global copper market is expected to post a 300,000-ton surplus next year.
The latest copper price surge caps a volatile year for the red metal used in construction, electrical grids, and electronics.
Early this year, traders rushed copper into the US in anticipation of President Donald Trump’s steep import tariffs.
But months later, the administration unexpectedly excluded refined copper from those duties, leaving importers sitting on piles of metal.
Even so, the market isn’t convinced the reprieve will last.
Goldman’s analysts wrote that they now expect the White House to announce a refined copper tariff in the first half of 2026 for implementation in 2027. Such a delay would likely encourage further US stockpiling, as expectations of future tariffs keep domestic buyers pulling copper out of the global market.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world faces a growing supply squeeze, with Goldman expecting a 450,000-ton deficit next year.
Furthermore, the world’s copper supply has been rattled by real disruptions.
Production setbacks at big miners in Indonesia, Congo, and Chile have squeezed output in recent months.
That dynamic has helped drive high copper premiums across the rest of the world.
“Producers plan to impose record premiums on European and Asian customers next year, effectively compensating for profits they could earn selling to the US,” wrote Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING, last week.
AI demand
Adding to the upside pressure, speculation has flooded the market as traders are piling into positions tied to AI infrastructure and energy transition themes, treating the metal almost like a tech-linked asset.
Investors are piling into bets linked to data-center construction — a speculative trend Goldman’s analysts warn has left prices open to a sharp reversal.
That makes copper vulnerable to any wobble in AI stocks, particularly if the hype around data center buildouts fades.
“The copper price rally in December is becoming highly speculative, which makes it vulnerable to a rapid reversal,” wrote Goldman’s analysts.
Goldman’s copper price forecast for 2026 is $11,400 per ton — lower than current levels.
