Average tax refunds increased more than $200 in the first two weeks of filing season compared to the same time last year, as Republicans pin their midterm pitch to voters on delivering big tax savings.
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Impressions taxpayers form this filing season could be politically pivotal since it will be their first experience under President Donald Trump’s new tax regime. The president has promised a generous boost in refunds from new and expanded tax breaks.
The IRS also faces the tall task of quickly and seamlessly delivering on Trump’s promises of huge tax refunds, amid steep staff cuts, leadership turnover and slashed funding.
Taxpayers on average collected $2,290 in refunds through Feb. 6, according to IRS data. The agency received more than 22 million returns, down about 5% during the same period last year. The IRS was slower to process returns than last year, getting through less than 21 million in the first two weeks.
Data this early in the filing season doesn’t necessarily predict the overall annual trend. Big year-to-year changes tend to smooth out over the long term as more returns come in. But they can provide an early snapshot of where things stand at the agency.
The Treasury Department has promised tax refunds $1,000 higher on average than last year. Refunds so far, while up nearly 11%, have fallen short of the lofty target. The data does not include any refunds related to the earned income tax credit and the additional child tax credit, which the agency can’t issue until Feb. 15.
For the first time this year, taxpayers are able to deduct some tips and overtime from their tax bills, thanks to Trump’s tax law, as well as interest paid on loans to buy new U.S.-assembled cars. The administration is counting on the new and expanded tax breaks, which also include a higher standard deduction, child tax credit and a higher $40,000 cap on state and local tax deductions, to woo voters ahead of November.
This tax season is also set to test the IRS as the agency reels from steep staff cuts, leadership shake-ups, government shutdowns and slashed funding. Since the start of 2025, the IRS has cycled through seven commissioners and acting commissioners. During that period, the agency lost more than a quarter of its staff, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate.
Last year’s record 43-day government shutdown also undermined preparations for this filing season, by slowing the IRS’s hiring and training process. By the end of last year, the agency had only hired and trained 2% of the 2,200 positions approved to assist in processing returns, according to the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration.
