US CEOs are heading into 2026 with a bit more confidence, even as their outlook remains softer than usual.
Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Index, a measure of their intent to invest, spend, and sell, rose four points in the fourth quarter from the prior three months to 80, just under its historical average of 83. The survey gathered responses from 164 CEOs between November 21 and December 5.
Expectations for sales improved the most, while plans for capital investment inched higher. Hiring intentions also ticked up compared to the previous quarter, though more CEOs still expect to reduce head count, rather than grow it, over the next six months.
Chuck Robbins, the group’s chair and Cisco’s CEO, said the index reflects a cautious but resilient corporate outlook. In the report, he pointed to this year’s business-friendly tax changes and regulatory shifts as factors that helped stabilize conditions. Easing permitting for energy and tech infrastructure could boost investment more, he added.
The latest results come after a turbulent stretch. CEO sentiment plunged in the second quarter of 2025, with the index dropping 15 points to 69 — its lowest reading since 2020. Executives at the time cited an unpredictable trade environment and tariff swings that complicated planning and raised costs. In early 2024, the index had briefly climbed above its long-run average for the first time in two years, signaling a short-lived surge of optimism.
Labor and tariffs remain pressure points. The fourth quarter marked the third straight period in which top executives said they expect more job cuts than hiring.
“CEOs’ softening hiring plans reflect an uncertain economic environment in which AI is driving sizeable capex growth and productivity gains while tariff volatility is increasing costs, particularly for tariff-exposed companies, including small businesses,” Joshua Bolten, Business Roundtable’s CEO, said. “We continue to urge our trading partners and the Administration to stabilize the system and bring tariffs down.”
The quarterly survey also asked CEOs to identify their biggest cost pressures. Labor topped the list for the ninth time, though by a smaller margin than last year. Material and healthcare costs tied for second, followed by supply chain expenses — an area especially affected by tariff volatility.
This story was written using Business Insider’s AI tools and edited by a Business Insider editor.
