Sports fans are warming to ESPN’s streaming-focused app, but the real question is if they’ll stick around once football season winds down.
ESPN’s streaming services generated an estimated 2.1 million subscribers in the US from August 21 through September, subscription data firm Antenna said on Monday.
About 1.2 million, or 57%, of those signups were for the full version of ESPN, which the sports network made available outside of the pay-TV bundle for the first time ever for $30 a month. The rest were for ESPN Select (formerly ESPN+), which has a smaller subset of live sports, some original shows, and ESPN’s film library, including its “30 for 30” documentary series.
ESPN’s direct-to-consumer service is on pace to exceed analysts’ estimates. Wells Fargo’s Steven Cahall predicted that stand-alone ESPN would score 1.5 million to 2 million subscribers by year’s end, with Wolfe Research’s Peter Supino calling for 1.75 million and Lightshed’s Rich Greenfield estimating 2 million in that span. ESPN’s stand-alone service is nearing those targets in just over a month, with the NBA and college basketball seasons right around the corner.
However, it may be too soon to say that ESPN has solved streaming.
ESPN’s new subscription service will face a formidable test in January, when the NFL and college football seasons wind down. It’s way easier to cancel streaming services than cable, as YouTube TV has learned the hard way by shedding subscribers after the end of the football season.
If ESPN’s cord-cutter-friendly service can’t maintain its momentum, it might not solve the cable network’s existential pay-TV problem after all.
An ESPN spokesperson declined to comment for this story.
A new bundle is born
ESPN isn’t alone in making its content available outside the pay-TV bundle.
TV networks like CNN and Fox are also going the direct-to-consumer route. CNN just unveiled its $7 a month CNN All Access launching this month, and Fox One, Fox’s new $20 streamer, had 1.1 million signups from August 21 through September, according to Antenna’s estimates. Plus, streamers like Peacock and Paramount+ air live sports from NBC and CBS, respectively.
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But TV networks like ESPN and Fox don’t want to completely undermine the pay-TV bundle, which is still quite lucrative. Basic cable packages typically go for $90 or more a month, while YouTube TV costs a bit less at $83, and DirecTV’s skinny sports bundle is $70.
The beauty of traditional bundles is that networks get paid for each pay-TV subscriber — even if those viewers never watch their channels. They also don’t have to market those packages. Plus, sports fans can see most of the games in one place.
“The bundle is still the best value for sports fans,” Fox Sports CEO Eric Shanks said at a Front Office Sports conference in September.
Still, ESPN knows it needs a way to directly reach consumers, especially young audiences who didn’t grow up paying for a big TV bundle.
ESPN is trying to thread the needle by going direct-to-consumer, without giving up on bundling, which helps prevent cancellations.
The sports network is offering several bundling options, like stand-alone ESPN and Fox One for $40 a month. For that same price, subscribers could instead get ESPN with NFL+, which has the highlights channel RedZone, along with the ad versions of Disney+ and Hulu.
Those who’d rather pay $30 can get ESPN with Disney+ and Hulu with ads for free for the first year. (After 12 months, that bundle will cost $36 a month, while the ad-free version is $45.)
Neither ESPN nor Fox is saying how many subscribers they’re expecting in the long term.
“I’m not going to lie to you and say we know exactly where this is exactly going to land,” Fox One head Pete Distad said of his streamer’s subscriber count at its launch event in August.
