Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon Has 4 Big Calls for Markets and the Economy

Goldman Sachs’s top executive is feeling good about markets, with some important caveats.

David Solomon, the bank’s CEO, struck an upbeat tone when speaking about stocks and the US economy at Italian Tech Week on Friday. Despite some risks on his radar, the CEO of the investment bank said he was generally unbothered about the state of markets, even as concerns swell about a potential stock market bubble and a slowing economy.

“I sleep very well and I’m not going to bed every night worried about what will happen next,” Solomon said, speaking to Bloomberg at the conference.

Yet, while his long-term view is mostly optimistic, investors should be aware of some risks on the horizon.

Here are Solomon’s four predictions about what comes next for markets and the economy.

The stock market could see a drawdown in the next few years

Historically, the stock market has “run ahead” of its potential when there’s a new technology that generates a lot of interest and excitement, Solomon said. That appears to be the dynamic now, he said, commenting on the S&P 500’s streak of records in the second half of this year.

The benchmark index has rallied back from its low in early April after tariffs were announced, and is up 15% year-to-date.

“You’re going to see a similar phenomenon here. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets. But that shouldn’t be surprising given the run we’ve had,” Solomon said.

Solomon didn’t have an exact prediction for how much or when the market could drop. A report from Goldman Sachs in August estimated that the S&P 500 had more than a 20% chance of seeing a drawdown within the next 12 months.

The bull market will create winners and losers

Solomon pointed to the internet boom of the 1990s and early 2000s, during which a handful of tech front-runners emerged. A few of those companies, like Amazon, have continued to prosper, while other companies that soared in the early days of the boom have slowly faded away.

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“I guarantee you, at the end of the move, there’ll be a bunch of winners and there’ll be a bunch of losers. There’ll be a bunch of capital that was deployed that ultimately delivered very attractive returns, and a lot of capital that was deployed that did not deliver returns,” Solomon said, adding that this pattern was typical for any large investment cycle in markets.

The US economy will remain strong

Solomon expects growth to accelerate in 2026. He pointed to strong catalysts like aggressive fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending, and colossal capital expenditures, which could outweigh headwinds like the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The economy grew at 3.8% in the second quarter. GDP growth will likely remain at just under 2% going forward, Solomon predicted, which is slightly below its historical trend but still reflective of an economy that’s “in pretty good shape.”

“But I think two things you have to watch. You have to watch labor,” he said, pointing to recent weakness in the job market. “I think you’ve also got to watch inflation and whether or not the impact of trade is just a one-time price movement or there’s something more significant that comes through,” he added, referring to the inflationary impact of tariffs.

Dealmaking will ramp up

Solomon also expects 2026 to be another big year for dealmaking. That’s partly due to looser regulation in the space, as well as corporate leaders looking to increase competitiveness in their industries as much as possible, Solomon said.

The dollar value of mergers and acquisitions has surged 29% year-over-year in 2025, while the number of M&As has risen 8%, Goldman analysts wrote this week. The bank said it expects the number of deals to rise by another 15% next year.