A travelers check flight information at LAX as the shutdown passes the one-month mark, leaving essential workers unpaid in Los Angeles, California, on November 5, 2025.
Grace Hie Yoon | Anadolu | Getty Images
U.S. airlines are predicting another record Thanksgiving holiday travel period and are upbeat now that the travel-snarling government shutdown has ended.
Airlines will carry more than 31 million people between Friday, Nov. 21, and Monday, Dec. 1, Airlines for America, a lobbying group representing the largest U.S. carriers, predicted Thursday. The busiest days are expected to be the Sunday after Thanksgiving, with about 3.4 million people flying, followed by the Monday after Thanksgiving, with around 3.1 passengers.
Airline executives have expressed relief after the longest-ever government shutdown ended Nov. 12. Shortages of air traffic controllers, who were required to work without their regular pay, delayed and canceled flights, disrupting travel plans for some 6 million people, A4A said.
The industry is now pushing lawmakers to pass legislation to ensure that air traffic controllers are paid in the case of another shutdown, with executives complaining in recent weeks about air travel becoming a political bargaining chip. The latest bill funds the government only through January, so industry members are hoping to avoid a repeat of the closure just before winter break and spring break seasons begin.
Bank of America estimated the big network airlines could see an operating income hit of $150 million to $200 million and smaller carriers would see an impact of $100 million because of the shutdown, but airlines haven’t yet come out with revised estimates.
Some travelers appeared to be waiting until the shutdown ended before booking their travel.
United Airlines said bookings between Nov. 15 and Nov. 16 were up 16% compared with the prior weekend, when air travel disruptions spiked.
The carrier also said bookings for international trips are at a record for the holiday period, up 10% over last year, with Cancun, Mexico, and major European hubs in London and Frankfurt, Germany, as top destinations.
Overall, United forecast it will fly 6.6 million customers between Nov. 20 and Dec. 2., up more than 4% from last year.
The largest U.S. carriers’ international capacity is up about 5% between Nov. 26 and Nov. 30 compared with a similar period last year, according to aviation-data firm Cirium, while domestic capacity is about 2% higher.
American Airlines said it plans to run 80,759 flights from Nov. 20 through Dec. 2., more than any airline.
“The Thanksgiving holiday period is one of the most condensed and most important for our customers — the stakes are high, and the American team is ready to deliver,” American’s Chief Operating Officer David Seymour said in a news release.
Not all airlines have beefed up their schedules, however. Budget carrier Spirit Airlines, in its second bankruptcy in less than a year, has slashed capacity and furloughed hundreds of pilots to cut costs as it seeks to find more solid financial footing.
Spirit’s domestic flying capacity is down close to 40% from a year earlier, Cirium data shows.
