As the peak holiday shopping season approaches, most U.S. consumers have a downbeat outlook on the economy, according to an annual Deloitte survey published on Wednesday.
Most consumers surveyed — 57% — said they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, the consulting firm found in a poll of roughly 4,000 respondents. That compares to 30% who expected a weaker economy ahead of the year-ago holiday season and 54% in 2008, one of the years of the Great Recession.
It marks the most negative economic outlook since Deloitte began tracking that in 1997.
Seventy-seven percent of people surveyed said they expect higher prices on holiday items, up from 69% last year, according to Deloitte. It’s the first holiday season since President Donald Trump’s latest wave of tariff hikes on many imports.
“We’ve been talking about the resilient consumer for a while now, that despite all these pressures, the U.S. consumer continues to spend and we keep seeing growth and spending for retail,” said Brian McCarthy, retail strategy leader for Deloitte. “This outlook is starting to suggest that we’re getting towards the end of that resilience.”
Consumers’ pessimistic mindset has factored into their spending plans during the holiday season. They plan to spend an average of $1,595, 10% less than the $1,778 they planned to spend in the year-ago period, as they brace for higher prices, according to the Deloitte survey.
The lower anticipated spending cuts across all household income groups and nearly all generations, Deloitte found. Yet it was especially significant among younger shoppers.
Gen Z consumers, which in the survey were between ages 18 and 28, said they plan to spend an average of 34% less this holiday season than a year ago. Millennials, respondents between age 29 and 44 in the poll, said they expect to spend an average of 13% less this holiday season.
That compares to Gen X, which plans to spend an average of 3% more, and Baby Boomers, who expect to spend an average of 6% less.
For Gen Z shoppers, the tighter holiday budget likely comes from feeling more uncertain and unstable early in their careers, McCarthy said.
“They’re thinking about income and the job market and the concerns about the economy is going to throw a lot more pressure on them because they haven’t yet had time to sort of build up their savings or plan for less rosy economic environments,” he said.
Mike Daher, U.S. consumer industry leader for Deloitte, said the age group is also “exposed to a lot of inflationary pressures around housing costs,” along with higher prices of everyday items like groceries.
For retailers and brands, the findings add a note of caution to the most crucial sales period of the year. Other holiday forecasts have also found households expect to spend less during the holidays, while still reflecting consumers’ appetite for decorating and giving gifts during the festive season.
Holiday spending across stores and online is expected to rise 4% year over year, according to consulting firm Bain & Co., a drop from the 10-year average of 5.2% growth. A separate Adobe Analytics report found online holiday spending in the U.S. is expected to grow 5.3% year over year, but that would be slower than the year-ago increase of 8.7% year over year.
Like Deloitte’s poll, consulting firm PwC’s survey indicated a holiday pullback among Gen Z consumers, who said they planned to spend 23% less than during the year-ago period. Overall, consumers said they expect to spend about 5% less – or an average total of $1,552 – on holiday gifts, travel and entertainment compared with the year-ago season, according to the PwC survey.
The National Retail Federation, the major industry trade group, plans to share its holiday forecast in early November.
Though holiday outlooks have varied, one of the dominant themes of this holiday season will be value-seeking, Deloitte’s McCarthy said. Even in the past several months, the firm has found a notable uptick in the number of U.S. consumers who have reported seeking deals. Across income groups, Deloitte’s survey indicated that seven in 10 respondents are engaging in three or more deal-seeking behaviors, such as purchasing store brands or alternative ingredients, cooking more meals at home and buying used cars.
As consumers watch their budgets, they told Deloitte they will cut back on holiday-related extras. On average, consumers said they plan to spend 22% less on non-gift holiday expenses, such as hosting, clothing and decor.
For gifts, however, the cut wasn’t as deep. On average, survey respondents said they plan to buy eight gifts compared to nine in the year-ago period and spend $536 compared to $505 in the prior-year holiday season.
