Why exit polls can be misleading on election night : NPR

You don’t have to spend all of election night refreshing the results. In fact, you might want to wait until 7:30 p.m. ET before checking in.

David Wasserman, senior elections analyst at the Cook Political Report, kicked off Election Day with an interview on Morning Edition about his closing thoughts on the campaign strategy of Republicans and Democrats and his tips to get an early read on the election returns.

Wasserman weighed in on the final campaign push by President Trump and former President Barack Obama. He said Trump’s efforts to energize his base come as he struggles to hold on to voters who helped elect him, including some who previously voted for Obama twice.

According to Wasserman, many of those voters were drawn to Trump’s promises during the 2024 presidential election of a stronger economy, fewer foreign conflicts and protecting popular social safety net programs. But independents are now giving Trump low marks on all three, helping Democrats gain an advantage.

He added some Republican candidates are also distancing themselves from Trump, preferring to make their races a choice between themselves and their Democratic opponents rather than a referendum on the president’s performance.

While speaking to NPR’s Michel Martin, Wasserman also discussed when to tune in to check the election results, why exit polls aren’t necessarily a reliable guide to who’s winning and which House races could offer early clues.

Here are Wasserman’s tips for making sense of the results as they roll in on election night.

When should you actually check the results?

Wasserman said the first useful clues could arrive between 7 and 7:30 p.m. ET, when early votes from Florida start rolling in.

By 8 p.m. ET, large batches of votes from Texas and Ohio could offer a clearer picture of the battle for control of the Senate.

A word of caution about exit polls

Exit polls can tell us what issues matter to voters, but they aren’t necessarily a reliable guide to who’s winning.

Wasserman said SSRS, which conducts exit polling for major television networks, combines Election Day interviews with a pre-election survey. That survey faces some of the same challenges as other polls, including low response rates.

“We really have to wait for the hard results to be able to draw inferences on what’s happening,” Wasserman said.

The House races that could offer early clues

While Senate and governor’s races are drawing national attention, Wasserman is watching several House districts for early signs of how the night might unfold.

Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District (KY-06): A close race in the Lexington area could offer an early indication of the national picture, with polls closing relatively early.Florida’s 22nd and 14th Congressional Districts (FL-22 and FL-14): Both are toss-ups, one in South Florida and the other in Tampa. If Democrats win both, Wasserman said, it would signal a strong night for the party.South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District (SC-01): Republican Nancy Mace’s open seat in the Charleston area is another race to watch, with a close Senate contest potentially affecting the outcome.Virginia’s 2nd, 1st and 5th Congressional Districts (VA-02, VA-01 and VA-05): Wasserman sees three different tests of how the night might unfold. A win for Republican Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District would be a better-than-expected result for Republicans. The 1st District race between Republican Rob Wittman and Democrat Shannon Taylor could go either way. But if Democrat Tom Perriello unseats Republican John McGuire in the 5th District, it could mean Democrats aren’t just having a good night. They could be riding a wave big enough to reshape the political map. Or, as Wasserman put it, “batten down the hatches because this could be a tsunami.

The digital version of this interview was edited by Treye Green.