Americans aren’t too hot on their chances of finding a new job.
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Newly released survey data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows how workers rate their odds of finding a new role within three months, should they lose their jobs today. Since late 2025, the average American thinks they have a roughly 45% chance of landing a new job, worse odds than during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and comparable to the grinding recovery from the Great Recession in the early 2010s.
It’s a far cry from the optimism of the pre-pandemic hiring market and the Great Resignation, when opportunities were abundant. Workers also thought they were more likely to lose their jobs in the next year, according to the NY Fed’s consumer expectations survey.
It’s part of a larger malaise that’s settled over the economy and labor market. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell by 5.8% from February to March, as Americans anticipated that their personal finances and the short-term economic outlook would take a hit from soaring gas prices and stock volatility. Consumer sentiment about current economic conditions fell by 12.5% year over year. Meanwhile, nearly 10% of respondents in the New York Fed’s survey said that their household financial situation was much worse than a year ago.
While unemployment remains relatively low, hiring has slowed and it’s a tough market for job seekers. Job hunters are spending longer stretches without work, as the median number of weeks spent unemployed ticked up over the last few months. As of March, job seekers spent a median of 11.5 weeks unemployed — nearly two weeks longer than the year prior.
And long-term job seekers are increasingly swelling the ranks of America’s unemployed. More than a quarter of those without work have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. Some workers have told Business Insider that they’ve been on the hunt for years, or sent in thousands of applications.
It’s not all bad news for those out of work, or who anticipate they’d struggle to find new roles. The US added an expectation-whopping 178,000 jobs in March, a huge bounce back from February’s dismal hiring numbers. And payroll growth was widespread across sectors, another good sign for workers who have been contending with a lopsided hiring market.
Are you a job seeker, or worried about your prospects for finding a new job? Share your story with this reporter at [email protected].
